The TOTAL index is still trading inside the daily IC zone that formed after the last strong move down. The market continues to balance between demand in the IC zone around 2.98T–3.01T and supply near the daily entry zone above. Yesterday gave a neutral daily candle. Today the intraday move on 4H shows that both sides are still active, with liquidity taken below the lows and no clear winner yet.
Daily chart TOTAL – indecision candle at IC zone around 3.0T
Trend = bearish
Technical Analysis Key Points
- Yesterday was a clear indecision day, with a very small body and wicks relatively equal on top and bottom.
- Today the price had a more volatile starting with a sweep of the lows followed by an impulsive push up and an equal impulsive bearish correction
- If we want the bullish set-up to remain valid, we will need a candle close of this 4H candle respecting at least the head level or the shoulder level (both levels are relatively equal, but in detail one can see that the head is slightly lower than the shoulders). Such an impulsive bearish correction could mean that bears are not willing to give away yet, so still maintain a strict risk- and moneymanagement when taking long positions.
- Bullish = switch of momentum + if the IC-zone holds as strong support zone for a bullish reversal, printing a inverse head and shoulder.
- Bearish = even with a strong momentum, bulls are not able to break the daily entry zone. If we see a reversal, this a typical set-up for a bearish natural W, where, after printing the bearish W, the index printed equal lows and equal highs. This only confirms the strength of the first bearish W.
Market Structure Analysis
Daily timeframe
The daily candle of 06 December 2025 closed with a small body and almost equal upper and lower wicks around 3.0T. This signals indecision after the earlier reaction from the weekly IC level near 2.89T.
Price is rotating inside the daily IC area of the last impulsive move down.
Above price, the daily entry zone around the 0,618 retracement and the first structure level near 3.09T remains the main resistance area.
Below price, the local support is the IC zone around 2.98T–3.01T, with the next deeper support at the weekly IC level near 2.89T.
Overall, the daily structure is still a range between IC support and daily entry resistance, with no confirmed break of structure in either direction.
4H timeframe
On 4H we can see the potential inverse head and shoulders that started after the first strong bounce from the IC zone.
Today price first swept the lows around the head, taking liquidity below the pattern, then pushed up impulsively.
That push was followed by an almost equal impulsive bearish leg, which brought price back into the IC zone and close to the head and shoulder lows.
As long as 4H candles close at or above this cluster of lows, the inverse head and shoulders concept remains possible. A close clearly below would weaken or invalidate it and place focus back on the weekly IC level.
The intraday structure shows an ongoing battle: buyers defend the IC zone, sellers respond aggressively whenever price moves away from it.
Key Levels and Scenarios
Important levels
Weekly IC level support: around 2.89T
IC zone support on daily and 4H: roughly 2.98T–3.01T
Local 4H head and shoulders lows: inside the same 2.98T–3.01T band
Daily entry zone resistance: just above 3.02T, up to around 3.06T
First structure resistance on daily: around $3.09T
Higher daily high resistance: near 3.17T
Bullish scenario
The IC zone between 2.98T and 3.01T continues to hold as support.
The current 4H candle closes above the head and shoulder lows, keeping the inverse head and shoulders valid.
Next, bulls need a clear 4H break and hold above the neckline of the pattern and then above the daily entry zone around 3.02T–3.06T.
If that happens, the path opens toward the first structure level around 3.09T and later a possible retest of the daily high near 3.17T.
Bearish scenario
Price fails to hold the head and shoulder lows on 4H and closes back below the lower side of the IC zone.
Alternatively, price can first move up and then reject again from the daily entry zone 3.02T–3.06T without breaking and holding above it.
In both cases, the natural bearish W on the higher timeframe remains in play. Equal highs and equal lows around the existing bearish W would confirm the strength of that pattern.
Downside targets in that case are a return to the IC zone lows and then possibly the weekly IC level around 2.89T or even a test closer to the prior daily low near 2.73T if selling pressure accelerates.
Trading Implications
For traders who prefer long exposure
Better conditions for new longs come if the 4H closes clearly above the head and shoulder lows and later confirms a break of the neckline and the daily entry zone.
Until that confirmation, any long positions from the IC zone require conservative sizing and tight risk management, since bears still respond strongly after each bounce.
For traders who prefer short exposure
A clean rejection from the daily entry zone, without a 4H or daily close above that area, supports the bearish scenario and can justify tactical short positioning with invalidation above the zone.
A decisive daily close below the IC zone that turns the area into resistance would further strengthen the bearish case toward the weekly IC level.
For traders who wait for clarity
If price keeps oscillating between the IC zone and the daily entry zone without break, staying patient avoids getting trapped in both directions.
The next clear signal will be either a confirmed bullish break above the daily entry zone and neckline, or a confirmed bearish rejection and break back below the IC zone.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.