In this TOTAL daily analysis for 18 December 2025, we see the index trading heavy after a clear rejection at the neckline of a developing head and shoulders structure. Our technical analysis focuses on the fake-out zone around the recent swing low, with support resistance levels clearly defined by the daily high and low of this range.
We do not rely on Fibonacci projections in this setup; structure and horizontals remain our main tools.
TOTAL daily chart 18 Dec 2025 with head and shoulders structure, neckline and fake-out zone
Technical analysis
- Today we saw the index make a further decline, retesting the swing low of the leg up from the neckline to the head.
- The index is moving in the fake-out zone (the area between the body open/close and the swing low).
- We also saw a retest and rejection of the neckline. Is a further decline possible? Yes. A head and shoulders pattern with a break of structure is certainly possible, reinforcing a potential bearish continuation.
Market Structure Analysis
Price is rotating inside the larger range between the daily high near 3.17T and the daily low around 2.73T. The neckline sits just below 2.9T, acting as short-term resistance after the recent retest and rejection. As long as candles close inside or below the fake-out zone around the prior swing low, sellers keep control and the risk of a full head and shoulders breakdown remains high.
A decisive daily close back above the neckline would be the first sign that this bearish structure is weakening.
Key Levels and Scenarios
Bullish scenario (less likely for now): buyers must first reclaim the neckline (~2.90T), then push toward the shoulder area (~3.05T–3.08T) and finally challenge the range high around 3.17T. Only a strong close above the shoulder invalidates the head and shoulders threat.
Key levels to watch:
3.17T – range / daily high, major resistance
3.05T–3.08T – shoulder supply zone; potential lower high
2.90T – neckline; pivot for short-term trend
2.73T – daily low; key support before acceleration
2.62T – 3-month low; target on confirmed breakdown
Trading Implications
For active traders, risk/reward currently favors short setups while price trades below the neckline, with invalidation placed above the shoulder and position sizing kept conservative due to market-wide volatility.
This is not financial advice; always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. The structure of this analysis follows our internal trade plan framework